KENYA – HOW THE WEST LOST AN ELECTION

Prime Minister Raila Odinga and US Veep Joe Biden pose for the cameras

By Yaw Sakosablig
Future generations will look back on the 4 March 2013 elections in Kenya and ask how the coalition of the indomitable Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka could have lost this election?

After all, all the opinion polls showed that their CORD alliance was leading. However, by late February, 2013, certain trends were beginning to emerge, which showed that the alliance between the President elect, Honorable Uhuru Kenyatta, and his vice in the coalition, Hon William Ruto, were going to spring a surprise. I will hazard some guess here.

Firstly, the Western alliance in Kenya, led by the US Embassy, is known to be vibrant and noisy. This alliance includes the British High Commission, the Canadian High Commission and other Security Council wanabeees of different sorts.

Late last year, these Embassies held a press conference to complain that they had no access to President Mwai Kibaki, while the Chinese held all the glory. The Western alliance brought in a Deputy Minster known as John Carson (an African American) to warn Kenyans that electing Uhuru Kenyata and William Ruto, “will have consequences”. This emboldened other western Ambassadors who waded into the fray with threats of their own. “We are not even allowed to talk to them”, one said despondently. Some commentators in Nairobi have said that this was the point at which neocolonial interventions have heir Achilles heel.  

ICC Logo

 The International Criminal Court’s indictment of the two leading youthful contenders is seen in some sections of Kenyan society as engineered by the CORD alliance led by Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Some point to a letter written by the Secretary General of the Orange Democratic Movement, asking the Security Council not to defer the cases of the Ocampo 4 (now 3) as they are known in Kenya. Generally, it is felt that some sections of the Kenyan ruling class engineered to have the two most youthful political leaders encamped in the Hague to give Hon Raila a free ride to power. Of course, he has denied this.

However, the sympathy coming from the “consequences” warning was palpable. The West have never understood Africans. To get involved in an African in such direct way, was bound to rebound on their perceived supporter. They contributed to Hon Raila’s down fall in a major way. One weakness of the approach by Western alliance in Nairobi was the use of Nairobi based civil society organizations, who have no foothold in the rural areas, did not take part in either civic or voter education, and spent valuable time in writing pro ICC articles, taking court actions, etc. They have also tried to muzzle any discussion on the ICC which does not take their narrative on global justice.

During the Kenyan elections, civic and voter education was left to small community and faith based organizations, which were invaluable in helping citizens to make the right choices.

There were those who felt that television adverts could promote awareness. In the rural areas, radio was more effective. Incidentally, most of these Nairobi based organizations were sympathetic to the CORD Alliance, and will have to explain to their financiers how they helped to lose the elections; and how they have been unable to mobilise public opinion in support of the ICC despite the heavy western investment.
The Western interventionist approach allowed President elect Uhuru Kenyatta to position himself as pro Kenya, anti-neocolonial, and anti-imperialist, even if he did not use those words. He talked about Kenya being a sovereign state, about allowing Kenyans to choose their own destiny, and the youth of Kenya to be given a chance. This resonated with many Kenyan youth.

Raila Odinga weeping

The CORD alliance was therefore seen as protégés of the west, golden oldies doing the bidding of the West, with all its implications for the Kenyan economy and society. What is true is that the West is threatening to impose sanctions on the Kenyan economy because they made a democratic choice in the interest of Kenya.
Some democrats indeed.

While these external factors were important, it is the internal dynamics of the parties that worked in favour of the winners.

Firstly, the Jubilee Alliance of Uhuru and Ruto was much more youthful, had a dynamic, people focused programme, while the CORD Alliance was caught up in old excuses. For instance, during the Presidential debate, Uhuru Kenyatta was focused, clear, passionate, and charismatic. Prime Minister Raila Odinga, was still spouting history, and promising to bring the cases at The Hague ‘back home”.

Another Presidential aspirant, Hon Martha Karua exposed this position. The Jubilee Alliance was also present in several parts of the country, working day and night to get the votes out. The Manifesto of the Jubilee Alliance had some substance, which also worked in their favour. Some people have attributed this to the huge budget available to the Jubilee Coalition, but history is replete with examples where the rich contestants have not been elected, so there is more to this victory than the riches of the Kenyatta family.

Kenya President-Elect Uhuru Kenyatta

 Finally, a theory which has been discussed time and again in Kenya is
the “Tyranny of numbers” theory, which before the elections, was seen as problematic. Yet there is evidence to show that ethnic groups’ tribes which are huge sometimes tend to use these numbers to win elections. The ‘tyranny of numbers’ theory therefore had it that because the Jubilee Alliance had supported among certain ethnic groups, they could rely on these numbers to win the election. Those who disputed this theory now have eggs on their faces.

However, it is also true that some candidates for county positions were not elected on the bases of ethnicity.

All said, the West has not learned that African has come of age. Old colonial type interventions used by the West in Kenya did not work and will not work. Threats of sanctions and threats against individuals who have rejected the western narrative on the ICC will not work either.

Local issues were far more important than any other issue in this election. President elect Uhuru Kenyata showed that the sovereign interest of Kenya is more important, and it appears that Kenyans agree with him.