Attack on Iran can presage world war

By Gordon Duff

Moves by the United States to position specialized massive “penetrator” bombs for an attack on Iran clearly demonstrate a total lack of grasp by key players of the risks involved and the chain of events that will inexorably follow.

Attack Drones

  A threat against Iran by the United States was published by the UK Telegraph. Peter Foster, of their Washington Bureau met with Mike Donnelly, US Air Force Secretary to question him about deployment of experimental “bunker buster” bombs.

Donnelly is a Washington Insider, a computer programmer and administrative planner but did three years in the army, having served that short period after the end of the Vietnam War.

He has no combat experience and cannot fly an airplane. He is a perfect choice to run an Air force.

This is what Donnelly said:

"If it needs to go today", would be available. We continue to do testing on the bomb to refine its capabilities, and that is ongoing," he said "We also have the capability to go with existing configuration today. We continue to do testing on the bomb to refine its capabilities, and that is ongoing. We also have the capability to go with existing configuration today."

This weapon, the Massive Ordnance Penetrator or MOP weighs 14 tons and cost nearly $100 million to design.

It has never been successfully tested. Essentially, it is an 8” cannon barrel filled with high explosives hoped to be dropped from the B2 Stealth Bomber. Each B2 costs $2.1 billion dollars not to mention the $300 billion in design costs.

Some members of congress have serious doubts it is capable of penetrating the “underground weapons labs in Iran” that the CIA had briefed the same members on. That briefing told congress that no such labs existed.

This February, James Reisen and Mark Mazzeti of the New York Times reported the current level of American intelligence regarding Iran and nuclear weapons:

“Recent assessments by American spy agencies are broadly consistent with a 2007 intelligence finding that concluded that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program years earlier, according to current and former American officials. The officials said that assessment was largely reaffirmed in a 2010 National Intelligence Estimate, and that it remains the consensus view of America’s 16 intelligence agencies.”

Thus, the same members of congress concerned over the performance of the weapon have been officially briefed that there is no potential use for the weapon although they have clearly indicated that they intend to use the weapon despite the fact their own best information indicates their “opinions” are not rooted in reality.

There are further concerns, other than dropping a defective bomb on non-existent targets without rationale or legal authority.

It is also hoped that Iran has not modified its air defense radars as Serbia had, allowing them to shoot down America’s stealth planes. Serbia downed several back in the 1990s.

This weapon, the “MOB,” was developed to replace a Bush (41) era “nuclear bunker buster” that proved ineffective. The $100 million dollar project is almost identical to the “Tall boy,” a World War II era weapon used against German submarine pens.

The UK Telegraph’s article credits Israeli influence with congress’ flawed judgment, identifying a decision making process that is more “conspiracy to commit war crimes” than “national defense.”

“(The “MOB”) is the critical piece of military hardware that underwrites American assurances to Israel that it will neutralise Iran's nuclear facilities if diplomacy and sanctions fail.”

Additionally, the Obama administration has offered these weapons to Israel, the UAE and South Korea and other nations.

None have aircraft capable of delivering such a weapon. The likelihood of the MOB being sold on the world’s weapon “black market” is very high.

Israel’s unsubstantiated claims, not for the first time, have a powerful effect on American decision making. All members of congress involved in this project have accepted large campaign contributions from Israeli sources in the past few months and are expecting more.

Israel’s other issue is that they have expressed the concern that their current inventory of GBU 28 bombs, a smaller 5000 pound version might not be able to destroy Iran’s real or imagined nuclear facilities. These GBU 28 bombs were a gift from the US. Israel sold much of their current inventory to North Korea and will require replacements.

Both Germany and China have acted as intermediaries in these sales which have included even the most advanced Patriot III missile systems.

More covert preparations for an attack on Iran have been uncovered.

We learned through top secret sources, that an American ship, flagged as a naval vessel but leased to Germany and crewed by Israelis, the USS Grapple, delivered a number of GBU 28 bombs to the Black Sea port of Poti between June 10 and 12, 2010.

Accompanying the USS Grapple were 12 Israeli torpedo boats that made runs at Russian craft in the region that were observing this operation as the Grapple moved through international waters.

It is believed these weapons were transferred to Azerbaijan where Israeli aircraft stand by, having been transferred to this forward position during joint bombing exercises with the Turkish Air Force in 2010.

Some Israeli forces have entered Kurdistan, taking control of a former US airbase. This has been done in defiance of the Iraqi government in Baghdad. Israeli drones are currently being operated from this facility. We have “on site” confirmations.

With public statements from both President Obama and Prime Minister Putin that discussions with Iran should continue over the Iranian weapons systems that both leaders have been informed by their own security services do not exist, an aspect of unreality seems to prevail.

In a January 2009 article in Asia Times, Sam Gardinier points out a number of inconsistencies that may well indicate that policies have not changed but rather rhetoric, with the availability of accurate information waning based, more on media control and “money in politics,” than changing geopolitics. From Asia Times:

“The United States falls into a trap in assuming that Russia doesn't want a nuclear-armed Iran.

Russian officials repeat over and over that they have no evidence that Iran has a weapons program.

US officials discount that statement but shouldn't. The United States needs to remember that Russia has nuclear engineers inside Iran working with the Iranians.

Strategic partnership
There are three examples in the past few months that suggest a strategic partnership: the nuclear power plant at Bushehr, the S-300 missile, and a refinery in Armenia. (Note: The S-300 missile sale is currently “off the table.”)

The work on the Bushehr (Iranian) nuclear reactor has been punctuated by continuous delay. One almost got the impression that Russia was dragging its feet on purpose. However, Russia appears to have a renewed commitment to the work.

Russia recently announced that it was planning to dispatch up to 3,000 technicians there.

It's hard to argue that Russia has any interest in punishing Iran for enriching in light of this project.

The refinery in Armenia is not as blatant, but equally meaningful. The discussions between GAZPROM, Russia's gas export monopoly, and Armenia are for a refinery that would serve both Armenia's needs as well as export to Iran. On the top of almost everyone's list for the next level of sanctions against Iran is refined petroleum products; Israel wants it and even Obama suggested it when he gave a speech to the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee convention last summer. Russia is diminishing the sanctions on refined petroleum in advance of a formal proposal by the United States.

On Friday January 23, Russia and Iran signed an agriculture agreement in Moscow. The Russian Minister of Agriculture called Iran a "strategic partner." Although the agreement is a small step, this is the first time I recall a Russian using that phrase.

Over the weekend, I talked to a member of the defense sub-committee of the House Appropriations Committee. He told me he has had recent conversations with some Iranian officials. They told him the United States has forced Iran in the direction of the Russians. That's certainly consistent with recent developments.

I also exchanged e-mails on this subject with a former European ambassador to Tehran. His made a very interesting point. Iran is the only potential competitor for natural gas to Europe. He said Moscow doesn't want Tehran to get too close to Europe to the point it could jeopardize Europe's dependence on GAZPROM. We've seen the evidence of Russia and GAZPROM leverage over Europe recently.”

The evidence is increasingly clear. With Putin in Tel Aviv recently voicing concerns about Iranian nuclear weapons, playing to an Israeli audience while directly contradicting established Russian policy, it becomes clear why such contradictions are accepted by the press without question.

What is made clear is that there is, in fact, no independent mainstream press.

Though, withholding air defense systems and now overtly supporting sanctions, Russia had already, not only arranged for Iran to have adequate supplies of refined petroleum but has thousands of technicians in Iran working on many of the same nuclear projects Israel says it plans to target.

The result leaves Russia with “double flexibility,” both influence in Israel to offset increasing US intransigence and hostility to Israel’s interference in American domestic politics and Russia, should Syria collapse, can again become more active advocates for Iran, another “flip-flop” the world press has chosen to ignore.

In deals signed over the past weeks, Saudi Arabia has begun a massive nuclear weapons program.

Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal stands ready for transfer to Saudi Arabia on a moment’s notice, according to a DEBKA report, a publication often cited for wild fantasy and conspiracy theory, that and the voice of the Mossad.

The other unseen player is Pakistan. According to the Stockholm Institute as reported in the UK Telegraph, Pakistan has a clear advantage in nuclear capability over India and that “nuclear gap” is growing exponentially.

The global reality is that, though India likes to compare military capabilities with Pakistan though the likelihood of China weighing in is more than remote.

Israel is said to depend on her close alliance with India to offset “the Muslim bomb,” as they refer to Pakistan’s nuclear capability.

Another extreme misconception is that Pakistan, were Israel to attack Iran with nuclear weapons, would stand aside because of differences in Islamic sects.

This purposeful misconstuance has a deadly reason behind it.

Were a nuclear attack on Iranian population centers to be instigated, a likely response were Iran to retaliate against an Israeli attack by decimating Israelis Dimona nuclear weapons plant, a “fat” target for Iran, cascading events would ensue.

Pakistan, with a significant nuclear arsenal, which includes large numbers of tactical nukes not public “counted,” would likely either supply nuclear weapons to Iran, said by WikiLeaks to have financed Pakistan’s nuclear program, or to destroy Israel’s major population centers itself.

India, the ally Israel has “banked” on to offset this possibility, now stands between two budding nuclear superpowers, Pakistan and China, and would be forced to stand down.

This would force nuclear intervention by the US which would immediately bring about a massive nuclear response by China and trigger a strike on the US by Russia if a secret protocol exists and such an endeavor would serve Russia’s interests.

Reports indicate that protocol does exist and such an endeavor, whatever Russia’s relations with Israel may have been, would serve Russia’s interests, in fact, her survival.

Israel would no longer be a factor as she would no longer exist and her population which includes a rapidly diminishing number of Palestinian “hostages” would no longer be the factor it had once been.

The entire situation, as described, is orchestrated by two groups, ultra-nationalists inside Israel and the assumption that America will retaliate if Israel is destroyed.

The solution, the sane one, involves removal of all nuclear weapons from the Middle East, systematic regional security conferences stressing economic growth and interdependence which include Israel and Iran and defusing the arms race in South Asia.

All require vision, courage and leadership. As things currently stand, we are less than a year from a world war. Consider this “August 1913.”