Zimbabwean president appeals for March 2013 election

By Thulani Sineke

A high court submission made on 27 September by Zimbabwean Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa, on behalf the country’s president, Robert Mugabe, indicates that elections in that country will be held in March 2013.

The proposal to hold general elections in March 2013 was triggered by an appeal against a ruling by the country’s Supreme Court. In July, the court ruled that Robert Mugabe announced dates for by-elections in three Matabeleland parliamentary constituencies before 30 September. The three constituencies which include Nkayi South, Bulilima East and Lupane East have been without representatives since 2009, after members of parliament from these districts lost their seats following their expulsion from the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party.

Appealing the ruling, Mugabe argued that costs associated with holding by-elections in the aforementioned districts would be costly to the government, especially in light of an upcoming draft constitution referendum, tentatively scheduled to be held in November at an estimated cost of US $200,000. As a way to remedy financial constraints faced by the Zimbabwean government, Mugabe’s court application proposed that the by-elections be synchronized with the general elections.

The court application by Robert Mugabe, specifically his intent to hold general elections early next year, adds uncertainty to progress made with regards to the draft constitution, whose successful implementation would set the roadmap for the next elections.  The country’s draft constitution, released on 19 July by the select committee of Parliament on the New Constitution (Copac) is currently awaiting approval from the three political parties, Zanu-PF, and two formations of the MDC: the MDC and the MDC-T.

Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party has during the past two months demonstrated diminished reluctance in accepting the draft constitution, as evidenced by the party’s decision to abandon most of the more than 260 amendments it had initially proposed. Despite this, Mugabe’s latest announcement shows that Zanu-PF is intent on holding elections with or without a new constitution – something that the party has touted since Copac started its work and in the period immediately after the country’s consociational government was announced.

Even if the draft constitution were to go on a referendum vote in November, it is unlikely that the period between then and March 2013 will be enough to organise a credible election. The MDC has already expressed its dissatisfaction of the proposed timetable and whatever commitment that the Zimbabwean government makes in relation to holding general elections in March 2013, in an environment currently characterised by high political and economic uncertainty, will most likely yield election-related violence similar to that experienced during the 2008 general election.

Moreover, the deferring of by-elections in Nkayi South, Bulilima East and Lupane East illustrates Zanu-PF fears about uncertainty of voting behaviour in these districts, which prior to the fallout that led to the expulsion of the representatives, were non-Zanu-PF constituencies. Mugabe may feel that a loss in these constituencies may set the tone for voting behaviour in the next elections, when they are eventually held.

Political uncertainty is likely to remain high in the short-medium term and this latest announcement may antagonise opposition formations, which are part of the Government of National Unity (GNU) and tasked with enforcing the Global Political Agreement (GPA). Disagreements over key issues such as security sector reforms, reconstitution of the electoral commission, media reforms, finalisation of the new constitution or the adjoining referendum for its adoption and the road map for election will remain unresolved.